By: Cooper Family Office | January 03, 2020

Generations of economics students have been inculcated with the Phillips Curve trade-off between
increased inflation and lower unemployment.  It makes sense that attracting and retaining employees 
when unemployed workers are harder to find puts upward pressure on wages, which transmits itself into 
higher prices throughout the economy. That common sense relationship seems to have broken down, 
however, during the past few decades.  The questions arise: Is the Phillips Curve no longer valid?  
Was it ever?

I believe the theory behind it remains valid, but that it's practical effect has attenuated due to two primary 
determinants:  (1) the rapid increase of globalization, most obviously in manufacturing but also in services 
as well, which obtained during the past 25 years, and (2) the increased pace in the adoption of 
labor-saving technology by American employers, which makes them less sensitive to changes in the 
supply of labor.

The offshoring of labor requirements makes employers less dependent on domestic labor, so that labor 
shortages in the U.S. can readily be dealt with by moving manufacturing operations overseas, or by 
contracting with service providers located in foreign countries.  The increased ease by which automation 
can replace workers (think of fast food restaurants which have replaced much of their staff with kiosks, 
etc, in response to minimum wage increases) decreases the upward pressure on total labor costs.

The underlying relationship remains, but its importance to the economy has abated.


Published by:  Skip Cooper

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Category: General News 

Tags: Economics, Labor, Macroeconomics