By: Cooper Family Office | April 10, 2020

An unfortunate policy of the past few years was the unilateral imposition of tariffs, on friend as well as foe, in a seemingly haphazard fashion.  The deleterious effects of them were partially mitigated by working out individual trade deals with the countries targeted, but those deleterious effects were far from eliminated.

The pandemic will, unfortunately, give enormous added impetus to those seeking to restrict international trade, on the grounds of national security/health needs.  It's likely there will be regulations imposed to stimulate the domestic production of pharmaceuticals, in view of both threatened and actual export restrictions on same imposed by other countries, most recently by India.

I am sympathetic to the need to...

Category: General News 

Tags: Trade 

By: Cooper Family Office | January 03, 2020

Generations of economics students have been inculcated with the Phillips Curve trade-off between
increased inflation and lower unemployment.  It makes sense that attracting and retaining employees 
when unemployed workers are harder to find puts upward pressure on wages, which transmits itself into 
higher prices throughout the economy. That common sense relationship seems to have broken down, 
however, during the past few decades.  The questions arise: Is the Phillips Curve no longer valid?  
Was it ever?

I believe the theory behind it remains valid, but that it's practical effect has attenuated due to two primary 
determinants:  (1) the rapid increase of globalization, most obviously in manufacturing...

By: Cooper Family Office | July 21, 2019

July 11, 2019   

It is a well-known fact that late in a business cycle, one may start to see important divergences between different sectors of the stock market.  More specifically, it is not unusual to see the Transport sector start to underperform the broader market in anticipation of a slowing overall economy.   

So it is that we must point out the recent breakdown of the IYT (iShares Transportation Index ETF) versus the broader SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF).  The Ratio of IYT/ SPY chart shown below has arguably made a huge “Head & Shoulders” topping formation on a monthly basis going back to Q4 2014, and recently broke the neckline of that formation.

By: Cooper Family Office | April 16, 2019

For the umpteenth time in the 10-year old bull market from 2009, the S&P opened higher on a gap this morning, and then promptly traded broadly sideways for the balance of the day.


Understanding this rhythm may be key to understanding when the current bull market may end. 


You see, as detailed in a New York Times February 2018 article “The Stock Market Works by Day, But It Loves the Night” (which in turn cited research by the Bespoke Investment Group), if one measures all of the net overnight advances in the S&P 500, these gains account for more than 100% of the market’s total gains since 1993.

By: Cooper Family Office | April 05, 2019

The SOX Semiconductor Index is touching new highs today, while industry experts continue to point to an actual glut of semiconductor chips. Samsung missed earnings yesterday citing poor chip pricing and slowing demand. There is a true disconnect here somewhere. Since the SOX is also touching an extrapolated Fibonacci band, we’d expect market price enthusiasm for the SOX is the one misplaced.